Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a very low probability of hitting Earth in 2032. However, scientists consider it the most dangerous asteroid.
Scientists have determined that asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in late 2024, has a very low probability of hitting Earth in 2032, but an impact cannot be completely ruled out.
Should you be worried about Asteroid 2024 YR4?
Space agencies, including the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA, are actively monitoring the trajectory of a celestial body that appears to be of great concern to scientists.
It is asteroid 2024 YR4, a space rock between 40 and 100 metres in diameter, discovered in late 2024 by an ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System) telescope at the ‘El Sauce’ observatory in Río Hurtado, Chile.
L’ATLAS fa parte di un programma di sorveglianza robotizzato volto proprio a dare la caccia agli oggetti che possono minacciare il nostro pianeta, i cosiddetti NEO (Near Earth Objects, come asteroidi e comete) che transitano non distanti dalla Terra.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 reaches level 3 on the Torino Scale
According to preliminary estimates, asteroid 2024 YR4 has an almost 99% chance of passing safely in front of Earth on 22 December 2032, but an impact cannot be ruled out.
ESA and NASA initially estimated the chances of the asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 at 1.2% and 1.5% respectively. These estimates correspond to a probability of 1 in 83 and 1 in 63 respectively.
Both ESA and NASA have revised their previous estimates upwards, it was reported on 6 February 2025.
In particular, ESA estimated that asteroid 2024 YR4 would have a 1.8% chance of hitting Earth on 22 December 2032, while NASA revised its calculations to 1.9%.
The deadliest asteroid
Although these percentages may seem acceptable overall, the reality is that we are facing a huge risk compared to the multitude of celestial bodies that pass close to our planet.
It is no coincidence that asteroid 2024 YR4 is the asteroid with the highest risk of hitting Earth according to the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a tool used by the International Astronomical Union (IAU) to classify potential collision events with Earth.
This scale is based on a score from 0 to 10, and the asteroid 2024 YR4 has been assigned a risk score of 3, which means the following
A close encounter that deserves the attention of astronomers and the public. Current calculations give a probability of 1% or more for a collision that could cause localised destruction. It is important to remember that the probability of an asteroid impact often increases initially and then quickly drops to zero after further observations. The attention of the public and scientists is deserved when the encounter is less than a decade away.
On impact, the asteroid could create a crater about one kilometre in diameter. Such an impact would have local and regional, but not global, effects. The estimated hazard corridor spans the eastern Pacific, South America, the North Atlantic, Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia.
